UFC 266: VOLKANOVSKI VS ORTEGA

With almost two full months passing us by without a PPV event, the wait is over and well worth it as the UFC heads back to Las Vegas with a STACKED lineup from the prelims to the main card. The main event features a fight that is almost 6 months in the making between quite possibly the best two Featherweight's on the planet. Back in April of this year we were supposed to see Alexander Volkanovski defend his title for the second time against top ranked opponent Brian Ortega, but with Covid having other plans instead we had a chance to see both of these fighters in a more personal way. With the Ultimate Fighter returning this year it was the perfect opportunity to have them be the featured coaches, and we watched as a friendly rivalry blossomed into a more personal grudge between the two, and now with season over all that's left is the fight! The co-main event is a fight that will feature the greatest Flyweight in the world as Valentina Shevchenko looks to continue her dominant reign in her division with her sixth title defense. This card does not let up either, the mixed martial arts world has been blessed with a fight that we will most likely never see again, a rematch from over seventeen years ago! So with this many great match-ups where do we begin?

Let's start with the rematch. Robbie Lawler and Nick Diaz have decided to run back a fight that took place back in April of 2004. At the time UFC 47 featured star fighter Robbie Lawler, he was a twenty year old phenom who looked to be the next big thing in the UFC's Welterweight division. Robbie was coming off of highlight reel knockout's and Nick Diaz looked to be his next victim, but we all know that's not how it played out. Both Lawler and Diaz put on a show for almost two rounds as Nick shocked Robbie with extremely precise striking and found himself leading the dance on the feet between the two. As both fighters continued to trade Diaz was seemingly to be getting the better of Robbie which had him visibly frustrated. The two would jaw back and forth throughout the entire fight until eventually Nick landed a perfect short hook that sent Lawler to the canvas. Now fast forward almost twenty years later and we are in a completely different time. Both fighters have gone on to basically have full careers, Nick found success with multiple organizations over the next few years, as Robbie had continued success in the UFC and even claimed the title. With the two being matched-up now we will have a completely different fight than the first.

This is an extremely difficult fight to predict, and Vegas agrees opening the line at a pick em. Lawler is for sure the more active fighter with his last bout happening last year, but he has now dropped 5 of his last 6 fights and his only win came back in 2017 against a deteriorated Donald Cerrone. On the other hand Nick Diaz is a complete wildcard. The last time Nick competed in a professional bout was all the way back in 2015 where he squared up against one of the greatest of all time in Anderson Silva. Nick also finds himself on a 3 fight losing streak.

So with all this being said where will I put my money? The only bet on this fight that has value is the prop bet of "Will This Fight Go the Distance?" I will be betting "No +110" There are a couple factors that lead me to believe that this fight will not need the judge's scorecards. What some people are forgetting that this will be a 5 round fight, not 3 so with an extra ten minutes to find a finish that is a boost as well. Not to mention that both fighters are almost 40 years old so to have enough in the tank to even compete at a high level for a full twenty-five minutes will be a challenge.

For the Co-Main event we continue to watch greatness in action as Valentina Shevchenko will go for a ridiculous sixth title defense. She finds herself matched up against UFC veteran Lauren Murphy. She is currently riding a five fight winning streak and looks to shock the world this weekend. Lauren has many skills and is definitely a top tier athlete, but seriously is this really a question? The line opened for Shevchenko at -1700. We all know that there is zero value to bet against Valentina this weekend so where can we possibly find value in this fight? For me I will once again be betting under the props section for this fight. I will be putting my money on "Alternate Round Betting" of rounds 1-3 at -115. Basically this just means that the fight will end in the first three rounds, and for me I do not see anyway Lauren can fend off Valentina for a full 15 minutes, especially after the way Valentina went out and finished Andrade in her last bout.

Finally moving onto the Main event for this card, Volkanovski vs Ortega. I have battled in my head with this fight back and for the the last two months, it's your typical brain thinks this but heart wants this argument. To be honest, yes I want to see Volkanovski dethroned and have Ortega walk out the new champion, but do I actually think that will happen, no. Without a doubt both men are clearly some of the best fighters in the world, with a combined 39 professional fights between the two of them each man has only one defeat on their record. Volkanovski claimed UFC gold back in December of 2019 and then went on to defend his title in the summer of last year. In those two fights against Max Holloway we learned a lot about Volkanovski. He's not just a dominant force, but he also can box with the best of them. For 10 combined rounds, a full fifty minutes, we saw Volkanovski's striking on display along with his typical smothering wrestling. He showed that no matter where the fight ends up, he's fit and ready for it!

On the other hand Ortega is sort of a wildcard. Vegas has Brian listed as a +150 underdog and for good reason. He has only competed in one fight in the last three years. This is not nearly enough fight footage of him recently to really judge him off of. We all know he is an absolute threat on his back and also showed vastly improved striking in his last bout against the Korean Zombie. Brian looked like a completely different fighter last year and after watching this season's Ultimate Fighter he definitely seemed to have a mental edge on Volkanovski as well. I do believe Brian has elevated his game to new heights but with Alexander being such a consistent force for so long I have learned not to bet money against him. Volkanovski is currently riding an extremely impressive 19 fight winning streak and even at -165 I still see value in this. So for the main event my money will be on Alexander Volkanovski -165.

TOP BETS FOR THIS CARD:

PARLAY OPPURTUNITY:

Matthew Semelsberger (-480) + Jessica Andrade (-250) Odds Combined: -140 Uros Medic / Jalin Turner

Uros Medic -110

Daniel Hooker / Nasrat Haqparast Daniel Hooker: -135 Curtis Blaydes / Jairzinho Rozenstruik Over 1.5 Rounds: -140

BIG ODDS OPPORTUNITY:

Curtis Blaydes / Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Blaydes by Decision: +225